What do the latest polls say for Democrats and Republicans?

For Joe Biden, this is a very high-risk ballot: due to the mid-term elections, which are held on Tuesday, November 8, the US president could face a Republican wave in Congress and thus see his powers to the end. autumn 2024. In any case, that is what the most recent opinion polls in the United States suggest.

>> Midterms 2022: follow the election day in the United States live

For the House of Representatives, the Republican opposition has a good chance of winning at least 10 to 25 seats, which is more than enough to be a majority there. Today, the Democrats have 222 of the 435 seats in the lower house, against 213 for the Republicans. According to the FiveThirtyEight site, Republicans have an 84% chance of becoming a majority in turn.

Pollsters are more mixed about the fate of the Senate, but Republicans appear to have the upper hand there, too. Currently, the upper house is divided between a group of 50 Republicans and a group of 50 Democrats and independents. In the event of a perfect tie in the upper house, it is the vice president who decides, in this case Joe Biden’s number 2, Democrat Kamala Harris.

During this election, there are 35 seats up for renewal: 21 are Republican and 14 are Democrat. According to FiveThirtyEight’s predictions, Republicans have a 59% chance of regaining the majority, an advantage on paper that has widened in recent days of the campaign: on October 18, three weeks before the election, Democrats still they had a 63% chance of retaining the majority.

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